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Budget constraints pose a challenge for the decision maker in transportation, which is how to prioritize those projects that are more likely to have tangible results. That can be said for the case of determining airports that are more likely to be viable for having airline services. Having a method that aids transportation planner to identify locations where potential for regular airline service lies is therefore fundamental for planning where part of the budget for airport investment for regional aviation, for instance, will go. This article uses the spatial statistic method of Moran's I for the variable “interstate bus trips generated by municipalities” to identify locations with potential to have regular airline service, using data of Brazilian interstate bus trips from 2005 to 2014, because this statistic is widely used for spatial correlation analysis. An online survey was also conducted with the Brazilian airlines, asking them about their interest in operating in any of 40 airports, which had no regular airline service until the end of 2015.  Using the data gathered from the survey applied to airlines and road trips generated by all 5565 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2015, it could be noted that locations of interest pointed out by airlines were in regions considered either in High-High or High-Low Moran quadrants. This result shows that Moran’s I is a good planning tool for identifying places with potential to commercial flights, because the locations pointed out by Moran’s I were the same pointed out by the Brazilian airlines companies.

Using Moran's I to plan potential regional aviation airports - The case of Brazil