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According to the report by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research in 2006, Japan starts long-term declining of population since 2005.As the mid-to-long term vision of urban and regional planning, consolidation of residential areas and public service facilities including withdrawal is necessary to improve Quality of Life for residents living rural area and suburban area. In addition, from providers’ point of view such as administration and private sectors, consolidation of the facilities is inevitable due to the profitability. Because of decrease in facility-users and lack of successors caused by population decline and aging, it is also difficult for public administration to provide public service. The purpose of this study is to get suggestions for sustainable urban and regional spatial structure in Japan. A spatial simulation model uses a multi-agent-based model to analyze the mid-and-long term change of agglutination of residential areas and public service facilities. At first, a multi-agent-based model to quantitatively evaluate agglutination of residential areas and public service facilities is developed. Next, sensitivity analysis was done to tune some crucial parameters influencing on simulation results. Finally, some simulations were carried out based on several scenarios with policies related to sustainability and accessibility of the facilities. As the result, it is found that public service facilities are apt to be agglutinated to the city center but a financial support by administration or NPO enables the facilities located on sub-centers to sustain public service.

A Spatial Simulation Model to Explore Agglutination of Residential Areas and Public Service Facilities