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We estimated the damage probability according to age class and major climatic disasters based on ‘Statistical Yearbook of National Forest Insurance’ from 1960 to 1996. The probability of snow damage is high for young stands, then gradually decreases with age. On the other hand, the risk of wind damage gradually increases with age. Decisions about rotation age should be based on the distribution of damage probability with stand age. Risk of damage has two contradictory effects on the optimal rotation period; one is that the rotation-shortening effect caused by risk of damage around harvest age; another is the rotation-extending effect due to decrease of rent by the risk of damage through the raising period. Change of optimal rotation depends on the relative magnitude of these effects. We examine this by calculating land expectation value (LEV) using a simulation model with the empirical damage probability, price and cost. Change of the optimal rotation period obtained from the national average damage probability is not significant. However, the optimal rotation is shorter in high wind risk areas and is longer in high snow risk areas. It is because the damage probability for a mature stand is high in the case of wind and low in the case of snow. In addition, the extent of decrease in LEV is smaller for wind than for snow. The results of simulation based on empirical data confirm that the optimal rotation period can become either shorter or longer through incorporating risk in decision making, depending on the damage probability distribution with stand age.

Climate risks and age-related damage probabilities – effects on the economically optimal rotation length for forest stand management in Japan