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A long-range prediction system of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has been operated in the National Typhoon Center of the Korea Meteoro- logical Administration since 2012. The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC tracks averaged over the period June~October. In this study, we separately developed TC prediction models for summer (June~August) and autumn (September~November) period based on the current operating system. To perform the three-month WNP TC activity prediction procedure readily, we modified the shell script calling in environmental variables automatically. The user can apply the model by changing these environmental variables of namelist parameter in con- sideration of their objective. The validations for the two seasons demonstrate the great perfor- mance of predictions showing high pattern correlations between hindcast and observed TC activity. In addition, we developed a post-processing script for deducing TC activity in the Korea emergency zone from final forecasting map and its skill is discussed.

daegi/dae'gi

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in Summer and Autumn over the Western North Pacific and Its Application to Influencing Tropical Cyclones to the Korean Peninsula