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We examine crime patterns in Santa Monica, California before and afterpassage of Proposition 47, a 2014 initiative that reclassified some non-violentfelonies to misdemeanors. We also study how the 2016 opening of four new lightrail stations, and how more community-based policing starting in late 2018,impacted crime. A series of statistical analyses are performed on reclassified(larceny, fraud, possession of narcotics, forgery, receiving/possessing stolenproperty) and non-reclassified crimes by probing publicly available databasesfrom 2006 to 2019. We compare data before and after passage of Proposition 47,city-wide and within eight neighborhoods. Similar analyses are conducted withina 450 meter radius of the new transit stations. Reports of monthly reclassifiedcrimes increased city-wide by approximately 15% after enactment of Proposition47, with a significant drop observed in late 2018. Downtown exhibited thelargest overall surge. The reported incidence of larceny intensified throughoutthe city. Two new train stations, including Downtown, reported significantcrime increases in their vicinity after service began. While the number ofreported reclassified crimes increased after passage of Proposition 47, thosenot affected by the new law decreased or stayed constant, suggesting thatProposition 47 strongly impacted crime in Santa Monica. Reported crimesdecreased in late 2018 concurrent with the adoption of new policing measuresthat enhanced outreach and patrolling. These findings may be relevant to lawenforcement and policy-makers. Follow-up studies needed to confirm long-termtrends may be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic that drastically changedsocietal conditions.

Impacts of California Proposition 47 on Crime in Santa Monica, CA