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Climate change has become intertwined with the global economy. Here, wedescribe the importance of inertia to continued growth in energy consumption.Drawing from thermodynamic arguments, and using 38 years of availablestatistics between 1980 to 2017, we find a persistent time-independent scalingbetween the historical time integral $W$ of world inflation-adjusted economicproduction $Y$, or $W\left(t\right) = \int_0^t Y\left(t'\right)dt'$, andcurrent rates of world primary energy consumption $\mathcal E$, such that$\lambda = \mathcal{E}/W = 5.9\pm0.1$ Gigawatts per trillion 2010 US dollars.This empirical result implies that population expansion is a symptom ratherthan a cause of the current exponential rise in $\mathcal E$ and carbon dioxideemissions $C$, and that it is past innovation of economic production efficiency$Y/\mathcal{E}$ that has been the primary driver of growth, at predicted ratesthat agree well with data. Options for stabilizing $C$ are then limited torapid decarbonization of $\mathcal E$ through sustained implementation of overone Gigawatt of renewable or nuclear power capacity per day. Alternatively,assuming continued reliance on fossil fuels, civilization could shift to asteady-state economy that devotes economic production exclusively tomaintenance rather than expansion. If this were instituted immediately,continual energy consumption would still be required, so atmospheric carbondioxide concentrations would not balance natural sinks until concentrationsexceeded 500 ppmv, and double pre-industrial levels if the steady-state wasattained by 2030.

Past production constrains current energy demands: persistent scaling in global energy consumption and implications for climate change mitigation