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The primary purpose of crosslinking is to halt the progression of ectasia. We retrospectively assessed the condition of keratoconus patients who were followed-up at least twice after the initial examination to evaluate keratoconus progression, to identify definitive factors to predict a later need for corneal crosslinking (CXL).    Methods  The medical charts of 158 eyes of 158 keratoconus patients (112 males and 46 females; mean age, 27.8 ± 11.7 years), who were followed up at the Department of Ophthalmology, Keio University School of Medicine at least twice after the initial examination to evaluate keratoconus progression were retrospectively reviewed. Best-spectacle corrected visual acuity, intraocular pressure, steepest corneal axis on the anterior float (Ks), thinnest corneal thickness according to Pentacam ®  HR, and corneal endothelial cell density were assessed. Gender, age, onset age of keratoconus, history of atopic dermatitis, and Pentacam ®  indices were also recorded. CXL was performed when the eye showed significant keratoconus progression, an increase in the steepest keratometric value, or an increase in the spherical equivalent or cylinder power of the manifest refraction by more than 1.0 D versus the respective values 2 years prior. Predictor variables and the requirement for CXL were analyzed using logistic regression.    Results  Fifty-eight eyes required CXL treatment. The best predictor of the requirement for CXL was patient age, followed by the Pentacam ®  Rmin (the minimum sagittal curvature evaluated by Pentacam ® ) value. The incidence of CXL was 86.4% in the < 20 years age group, with an Rmin of ≤ 5.73 mm, whereas 10.8% in the ≥ 27 years age group with an Rmin > 5.73 mm underwent treatment.    Conclusions  An age of < 20 years and an Rmin value of ≤ 5.73 mm predicted keratoconus progression and the requirement for CXL treatment in the near future.

Baseline factors predicting the need for corneal crosslinking in patients with keratoconus