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Background  Early detection of postoperative increase in C-reactive protein (CRP) correlates with postoperative complications. The present study examined the association between preoperative / intraoperative factors and postoperative CRP levels, with development and validation of a prediction model of early postoperative CRP level, for prophylactic management of postoperative complications in patients undergoing surgery under general anesthesia.    Material and methods  Multivariate regression analysis was retrospectively performed to determine the independent factor of CRP levels on postoperative day (POD) 1 and to develop a prediction model. Validation of the prediction model was prospectively performed. Data from 316 adult patients on perioperative variables were retrospectively obtained in a training cohort in patients undergoing elective non-cardiac surgery. In a validation cohort, 88 patients undergoing mastectomy and 68 patients undergoing laparoscopic colon surgery were prospectively utilized to evaluate the value of the prediction model. Major complications after surgery were defined as the Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa or greater.    Results  Duration of surgery, mean nociceptive response (NR) during surgery as intraoperative nociception level, and preoperative CRP level were selected to set up the prediction model of CRP level on POD1 ( P  < 0.0001). In the validation cohort, the predicted CRP levels on POD1 significantly correlated with the measured CRP after mastectomy ( P  < 0.0001) and laparoscopic colon surgery ( P  = 0.0001). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the predicted CRP levels on POD1 was significantly associated with major complications after mastectomy ( P  = 0.0259) and laparoscopic colon surgery ( P  = 0.0049). The measured and predicted CRP levels significantly increased in the order of severity of postoperative complications ( P  < 0.01).    Conclusion  Increases in duration of surgery, intraoperative nociceptive level and preoperative CRP level were selected to predict early increases in CRP level after non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia. Predicted CRP levels on POD1 were likely associated with severity of postoperative complications.

Prediction of early C-reactive protein levels after non-cardiac surgery under general anesthesia