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Prediction of heavy metal bioavailability in intact soil is important to manage soil pollution risks. We developed a regression model for representative Japanese soils to judge their potential vulnerability to cadmium (Cd) pollution. We added four rates of Cd to 17 sample soils to mimic artificial contamination. After aging the contaminated soils, we measured Cd’s bioavailability using the diffusive gradients in thin-films (DGT) technique. We then evaluated the relationships between bioavailability of Cd ([Cd DGT ]) and intact soil properties by statistical analyses. Cation exchange capacity (CEC) and pH emerged as significant factors to explain the cadmium bioavailability in Japanese soils. Specifically, lower CEC and lower pH were associated with higher [Cd DGT ], which poses a higher risk for soil ecosystems. The correlation between pH and [Cd DGT ] had a high dependence on [Cd Add ], whereas that for CEC did not. Regression analysis also showed that the interaction between intact soil pH and spiked concentration ([Cd Add ]) had a significant contribution to [Cd DGT ]. The regression model developed was rationally supported by a biotic ligand model. This simplified but realistic model would be useful in estimating the vulnerability of representative Japanese soils and determining the risk for Japanese soils in relation to Cd contamination.

Model construction for estimating potential vulnerability of Japanese soils to cadmium pollution based on intact soil properties