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The Campi Flegrei volcanic field (Italy) poses very high risk to the highlyurbanized Neapolitan area. Eruptive history was dominated by explosive activityproducing pyroclastic currents (PDCs; (Proclastic Density Currents) ranging inscale from localized base surges to regional flows. Here we apply probabilisticnumerical simulation approaches to produce PDC hazard maps, based on acomprehensive spectrum of flow properties and vent locations. These maps andprovide all probable Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) scenarios from differentsource vents in the caldera, relevant for risk management planning. For eachVEI scenario, we report the conditional probability for PDCs (i.e., theprobability for a given area to be affected by the passage of PDCs) and relateddynamic pressure. Model results indicate that PDCs from VEI<4 events would beconfined within the Campi Flegrei caldera, PDC propagation being impeded by thenorthern and eastern caldera walls. Conversely, PDCs from VEI 4-5 events couldinvade a wide area beyond the northern caldera rim, as well as part of theNaples metropolitan area to the east. A major controlling factor of PDCdispersal is represented by the location of the vent area. PDCs from thepotentially largest eruption scenarios (analogous to the ~15 ka, VEI 6Neapolitan Yellow Tuff or even the ~39 ka, VEI 7 Campanian Ignimbrite extremeevent) would affect a large part of the Campanian Plain to the north and thecity of Naples to the east. Thus, in case of renewal of eruptive activity atCampi Flegrei, up to 3 million people will be potentially exposed to volcanichazard, pointing out the urgency of an emergency plan. Considering the presentlevel of uncertainty in forecasting the future eruption type, size and locationwe suggest that appropriate planning measures should face at least the VEI 5reference scenario (at least 2 occurrences documented in the last 10 ka)

plos one

Probabilistic-Numerical assessment of pyroclastic current hazard at  Campi Flegrei and Naples city: Multi-VEI scenarios as a tool for full-scale  risk management