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Spatial patterns of Zn, Pb and Cd deposition in Cape Krusenstern National Monument (CAKR), Alaska, adjacent to the Red Dog Mine haul road, were characterized in 2001 and 2006 using  Hylocomium  moss tissue as a biomonitor. Elevated concentrations of Cd, Pb, and Zn in moss tissue decreased logarithmically away from the haul road and the marine port. The metals concentrations in the two years were compared using Bayesian posterior predictions on a new sampling grid to which both data sets were fit. Posterior predictions were simulated 200 times both on a coarse grid of 2,357 points and by distance-based strata including subsets of these points. Compared to 2001, Zn and Pb concentrations in 2006 were 31 to 54% lower in the 3 sampling strata closest to the haul road (0–100, 100–2000 and 2000–4000 m). Pb decreased by 40% in the stratum 4,000–5,000 m from the haul road. Cd decreased significantly by 38% immediately adjacent to the road (0–100m), had an 89% probability of a small decrease 100–2000 m from the road, and showed moderate probabilities (56–71%) for increase at greater distances. There was no significant change over time (with probabilities all ≤ 85%) for any of the 3 elements in more distant reference areas (40–60 km). As in 2001, elemental concentrations in 2006 were higher on the north side of the road. Reductions in deposition have followed a large investment in infrastructure to control fugitive dust escapement at the mine and port sites, operational controls, and road dust mitigation. Fugitive dust escapement, while much reduced, is still resulting in elevated concentrations of Zn, Pb and Cd out to 5,000 m from the haul road. Zn and Pb levels were slightly above arctic baseline values in southern CAKR reference areas.

Trends in spatial patterns of heavy metal deposition on national park service lands along the Red Dog Mine haul road, Alaska, 2001–2006