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Lyme disease is a major vector-borne bacterial disease in the USA. The disease is caused by  Borrelia burgdorferi , and transmitted among hosts and humans, primarily by blacklegged ticks ( Ixodes scapularis ). The ~25  B .  burgdorferi  genotypes, based on genotypic variation of their outer surface protein C ( ospC ), can be phenotypically separated as strains that primarily cause human diseases—human invasive strains (HIS)—or those that rarely do. Additionally, the genotypes are non-randomly associated with host species. The goal of this study was to examine the extent to which phenotypic outcomes of  B .  burgdorferi  could be explained by the host communities fed upon by blacklegged ticks. In 2006 and 2009, we determined the host community composition based on abundance estimates of the vertebrate hosts, and collected host-seeking nymphal ticks in 2007 and 2010 to determine the  ospC  genotypes within infected ticks. We regressed instances of  B .  burgdorferi  phenotypes on site-specific characteristics of host communities by constructing Bayesian hierarchical models that properly handled missing data. The models provided quantitative support for the relevance of host composition on Lyme disease risk pertaining to  B .  burgdorferi  prevalence (i.e. overall nymphal infection prevalence, or NIP All ) and HIS prevalence among the infected ticks (NIP HIS ). In each year, NIP All  and NIP HIS  was found to be associated with host relative abundances and diversity. For mice and chipmunks, the association with NIP All  was positive, but tended to be negative with NIP HIS  in both years. However, the direction of association between shrew relative abundance with NIP All  or NIP HIS  differed across the two years. And, diversity ( H' ) had a negative association with NIP All , but positive association with NIP HIS  in both years. Our analyses highlight that the relationships between the relative abundances of three primary hosts and the community diversity with NIP All , and NIP HIS , are variable in time and space, and that disease risk inference, based on the role of host community, changes when we examine risk overall or at the phenotypic level. Our discussion focuses on the observed relationships between prevalence and host community characteristics and how they substantiate the ecological understanding of phenotypic Lyme disease risk.

Influences of Host Community Characteristics on Borrelia burgdorferi Infection Prevalence in Blacklegged Ticks