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Background  Rehabilitation in forensic psychiatry is achieved gradually with different leave modules, in line with the Risk Need Responsivity model. A forensic routine outcome monitoring tool should measure treatment progress based on the rehabilitation theory, and it should be predictive of important treatment outcomes in order to be usable in decision-making. Therefore, this study assesses the predictive validity for both positive (i.e., leave) and negative (i.e., inpatient incidents) treatment outcomes with the Instrument for Forensic Treatment Evaluation (IFTE).    Methods  Two-hundred and twenty-four patients were included in this study. ROC analyses were conducted with the IFTE factors and items for three leave modules: guided, unguided and transmural leave for the whole group of patients. Predictive validity of the IFTE for aggression in general, physical aggression specifically, and urine drug screening (UDS) violations was assessed for patients with the main diagnoses in Dutch forensic psychiatry, patients with personality disorders and the most frequently occurring co-morbid disorders: those with combined personality and substance use disorders.    Results and Conclusions  Results tentatively imply that the IFTE has a reasonable to good predictive validity for inpatient aggression and a marginal to reasonable predictive value for leave approvals and UDS violations. The IFTE can be used for information purposes in treatment decision-making, but reports should be interpreted with care and acknowledge patients’ personal risk factors, strengths and other information sources.

Routine Outcome Monitoring and Clinical Decision-Making in Forensic Psychiatry Based on the Instrument for Forensic Treatment Evaluation