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In this paper we estimate the living carbon lost from Ecuador's mangroveforests since the advent of export-focused shrimp aquaculture. We use remotesensing techniques to delineate the extent of mangroves and aquaculture atapproximately decadal periods since the arrival of aquaculture in eachEcuadorian estuary. We then spatiotemporally calculate the carbon values of themangrove forests and estimate the amount of carbon lost due to directdisplacement by aquaculture. Additionally, we calculate the new carbon stocksgenerated due to mangrove reforestation or afforestation. This researchintroduces time and land use / land cover change (LUCC) into the tropicalforest carbon literature and examines forest carbon loss at a higherspatiotemporal resolution than in many earlier analyses. We find that 80%, or7,014,517 t of the living carbon lost in Ecuadorian mangrove forests can beattributed to direct displacement of mangrove forests by shrimp aquaculture. Wealso find that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) compliantcarbon grids within Ecuador's estuaries overestimate living carbon levels inestuaries where substantial LUCC has occurred. By approaching the mangroveforest carbon loss question from a LUCC perspective, these findings allow fortropical nations and other intervention agents to prioritize and target alimited set of land transitions that likely drive the majority of carbonlosses. This singular cause of transition has implications for programs thatattempt to offset or limit future forest carbon losses and place value onforest carbon or other forest good and services.

plos one

Ecuador's mangrove forest carbon stocks: A spatiotemporal analysis of  living carbon holdings and their depletion since the advent of commercial  aquaculture