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Background  In the Systolic Hypertension in Europe trial (NCT02088450), we investigated whether systolic blood pressure variability determines prognosis over and beyond level.    Methods  Using a computerised random function and a double-blind design, we randomly allocated 4695 patients (≥60 years) with isolated systolic hypertension (160–219/<95 mm Hg) to active treatment or matching placebo. Active treatment consisted of nitrendipine (10–40 mg/day) with possible addition of enalapril (5–20 mg/day) and/or hydrochlorothiazide (12.5–25.0 mg/day). We assessed whether on-treatment systolic blood pressure level (SBP), visit-to-visit variability independent of the mean (VIM) or within-visit variability (WVV) predicted total ( n  = 286) or cardiovascular ( n  = 150) mortality or cardiovascular ( n  = 347), cerebrovascular ( n  = 133) or cardiac ( n  = 217) endpoints.    Findings  At 2 years, mean between-group differences were 10.5 mm Hg (p<0.0001) for SBP, 0.29 units (p = 0.20) for VIM, and 0.07 mm Hg (p = 0.47) for WVV. Active treatment reduced (p≤0.048) cardiovascular (−28%), cerebrovascular (−40%) and cardiac (−24%) endpoints. In analyses dichotomised by the median, patients with low  vs . high VIM had similar event rates (p≥0.14). Low  vs . high WVV was not associated with event rates (p≥0.095), except for total and cardiovascular mortality on active treatment, which were higher with low WVV (p≤0.0003). In multivariable-adjusted Cox models, SBP predicted all endpoints (p≤0.0043), whereas VIM did not predict any (p≥0.058). Except for an inverse association with total mortality (p = 0.042), WVV was not predictive (p≥0.15). Sensitivity analyses, from which we excluded blood pressure readings within 6 months after randomisation, 6 months prior to an event or both were confirmatory.    Conclusions  The double-blind placebo-controlled Syst-Eur trial demonstrated that blood-pressure lowering treatment reduces cardiovascular complications by decreasing level but not variability of SBP. Higher blood pressure level, but not higher variability, predicted risk.    Trial Registration  ClinicalTrials.gov  NCT02088450

plos one

Randomised Double-Blind Comparison of Placebo and Active Drugs for Effects on Risks Associated with Blood Pressure Variability in the Systolic Hypertension in Europe Trial