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Background  The invasive fruit fly,  Bactrocera invadens , has expanded its range rapidly over the past 10 years. Here we aimed to determine if the recent range expansion of  Bactrocera invadens  into southern Africa can be better understood through niche exploration tools, ecological niche models (ENMs), and through incorporating information about  Bactrocera dorsalis  s.s., a putative conspecific species from Asia. We test for niche overlap of environmental variables between  Bactrocera invadens  and  Bactrocera dorsalis  s.s. as well as two other putative conspecific species,  Bactrocera philippinensis and B. papayae.  We examine overlap and similarity in the geographical expression of each species’ realised niche through reciprocal distribution models between Africa and Asia. We explore different geographical backgrounds, environmental variables and model complexity with multiple and single  Bactrocera  species hypotheses in an attempt to predict the recent range expansion of  B. invadens  into northern parts of South Africa.    Principal Findings    Bactrocera invadens  has a high degree of niche overlap with  B. dorsalis  s.s. (and  B. philippinensis  and  B. papayae ). Ecological niche models built for  Bactrocera dorsalis  s.s. have high transferability to describe the range of  B. invadens , and  B. invadens  is able to project to the core range of  B. dorsalis  s.s. The ENMs of both  Bactrocera dorsalis  and  B. dorsalis  combined with  B. philipenesis  and  B. papayae  have significantly higher predictive ability to capture the distribution points in South Africa than for  B. invadens  alone.    Conclusions/Significance  Consistent with other studies proposing these  Bactrocera  species as conspecific, niche similarity and overlap between these species is high. Considering these other  Bactrocera dorsalis  complex species simultaneously better describes the range expansion and invasion potential of  B. invadens  in South Africa. We suggest that these species should be considered the same–at least functionally–and global quarantine and management strategies applied equally to these  Bactrocera  species.

plos one

Niche Overlap of Congeneric Invaders Supports a Single-Species Hypothesis and Provides Insight into Future Invasion Risk: Implications for Global Management of the Bactrocera dorsalis Complex