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Isotopic variation of food stuffs propagates through trophic systems. But, this variation is dampened in each trophic step, due to buffering effects of metabolic and storage pools. Thus, understanding of isotopic variation in trophic systems requires knowledge of isotopic turnover. In animals, turnover is usually quantified in diet-switch experiments in controlled conditions. Such experiments usually involve changes in diet chemical composition, which may affect turnover. Furthermore, it is uncertain if diet-switch based turnover models are applicable under conditions with randomly fluctuating dietary input signals. Here, we investigate if turnover information derived from diet-switch experiments with dairy cows can predict the isotopic composition of metabolic products (milk, milk components and feces) under natural fluctuations of dietary isotope and chemical composition. First, a diet-switch from a C 3 -grass/maize diet to a pure C 3 -grass diet was used to quantify carbon turnover in whole milk, lactose, casein, milk fat and feces. Data were analyzed with a compartmental mixed effects model, which allowed for multiple pools and intra-population variability, and included a delay between feed ingestion and first tracer appearance in outputs. The delay for milk components and whole milk was ∼12 h, and that of feces ∼20 h. The half-life (t ½ ) for carbon in the feces was 9 h, while lactose, casein and milk fat had a t ½  of 10, 18 and 19 h. The  13 C kinetics of whole milk revealed two pools, a fast pool with a t ½  of 10 h (likely representing lactose), and a slower pool with a t ½  of 21 h (likely including casein and milk fat). The diet-switch based turnover information provided a precise prediction (RMSE ∼0.2 ‰) of the natural  13 C fluctuations in outputs during a 30 days-long period when cows ingested a pure C3 grass with naturally fluctuating isotope composition.

Forward Modeling of Fluctuating Dietary 13C Signals to Validate 13C Turnover Models of Milk and Milk Components from a Diet-Switch Experiment