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Forecasting the impacts of climate change on  Aedes -borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors  Aedes aegypti  and  Ae .  albopictus , as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3–34.0°C for  Ae .  aegypti ; 19.9–29.4°C for  Ae .  albopictus ), we can expect poleward shifts in  Aedes -borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by  Ae .  aegypti , but not by  Ae .  albopictus  in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for  Ae .  albopictus , most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both  Aedes  spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for  Ae .  albopictus , we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to  Aedes -borne viruses, the most extreme increases in  Ae .  albopictus  transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.

Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change