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Background  Brazilian Spotted Fever (BSF), caused by the bacterium  Rickettsia rickettsii , is the tick-borne disease that generates the largest number of human deaths in the world. In Brazil, the current increase of BSF human cases has been associated with the presence and expansion of capybaras  Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris , which act as primary hosts for the tick  Amblyomma sculptum , vector of the  R. rickettsii  in this area.    Methods  We proposed a semi-discrete-time stochastic model to evaluate the role of capybaras in the transmission dynamics of  R. rickettsii . Through a sensitivity analysis, we identified the parameters with significant influence on the  R. rickettsii  establishment. Afterward, we implemented the Gillespie’s algorithm to simulate the impact of potential public health interventions to prevent BSF human cases.    Results  The introduction of a single infected capybara with at least one infected attached tick is enough to trigger the disease in a non-endemic area. We found that to avoid the formation of new BSF-endemic areas, it is crucial to impede the emigration of capybaras from endemic areas by reducing their birth rate by more than 58%. Model results were corroborated by  ex-situ  data generated from field studies, and this supports our proposal to prevent BSF human cases by implementing control strategies focused on capybaras.    Conclusion  The proposed stochastic model illustrates how strategies for the control and prevention of vector-borne infectious diseases can be focused on amplifier hosts management practices. This work provides a basis for future prevention strategies for other neglected vector-borne diseases.

Transmission dynamics and control of Rickettsia rickettsii in populations of Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris and Amblyomma sculptum