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A spatially explicit, integrated modeling approach in presented here that simulates the twoway coupling of complex socio-ecological systems. A key component of our method is the use of the Analytic Network Process (ANP), a MCDA technique based on the super-matrix approach, to operationalize the dynamic feedback between mental models and the situation at the geographic automata; the ANP generates the priority weights that determine the decisions dynamically. The approach is illustrated as it is being implemented in MEGADAPT (MEGAcity-ADAPTation) ― a model that addresses the challenging task of eliciting the vulnerability of Mexico City to underlying socio-hydrological and climatic risks.

AN ANP-BASED SIMULATION OF VULNERABILITY OF TWO-WAY COUPLED SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS