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In this study, we analyze the supply-demand balance in a power system for the year 2030, utilizing an optimal power generation mix model in which the increased amount of renewable energy, high-efficiency thermal power generation, and constraint conditions that reflect realistic operation in a thermal power plant have been successfully incorporated. Our results indicate that the introduction of high-efficiency thermal power generation is capable of yielding a substantial reduction in both the annual costs involved in power generation and the annual amount of CO2 emissions. Moreover, the impact of high penetration of renewable energy on power supply operation is investigated in detail by estimating the daily capacity variation for frequency control at an interval of 15 min. Depending on the season and the weather conditions, our analysis detects that much of the time there is a capacity shortage for frequency control, which implies that high penetration of renewable energy could lead to severe integrity reduction in power operation. Finally, we discuss practical strategies for power supply operation toward resolving this capacity shortage with a particular focus on the resulting economic loss. 1. 緒 言 東日本大震災後,2012 年に政府が発表した「革新的エネルギー・環境戦略」(エネルギー・環境会議,2012)で は,2030年に向けたエネルギーシナリオ(以下,政府シナリオ)が一新され,原子力を稼動しない社会の実現が 大きな目標に掲げられた.その具体的な方策の一つは,再生可能エネルギーの大量導入であり,2010年比でおよ そ三倍とする積極的な目標値が設定された.しかしながら,2014 年のエネルギー基本計画(資源エネルギー庁, 2014)は一転して,再生可能エネルギーの導入量を見直す内容となっており,「環境適合性」「経済効率性」「安定 供給の確保」の三要素が備わった将来の最適電源構成の議論は今なお混沌としている. 再生可能エネルギーの導入量が正確に定まらない要因の一つは,大量に導入した場合,電力の供給が著しく不 高尾 康太,原 祥太郎,桐山 毅 橋本 彰,金子 祥三,泉 聡志,酒井 信介 Analysis on demand and supply operation in electric power system under high renewable penetration using optimal power generation mix model Kota TAKAO, Shotaro HARA, Tsuyoshi KIRIYAMA, Akira HASHIMOTO, Shozo KANEKO, Satoshi IZUMI and Shinsuke SAKAI Received 10 June 2014