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This paper proposes mathematical models to predict preceding car’s deceleration intent and evaluates its effect on the following car driver in terms of the mitigation of risk of rear-end collision. Assuming a four-vehicle convoy, an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) integrated with a conventional car-following model attempt to estimate the headway and velocity of the 1st to 3rd vehicles in the platoon. The car following model used in this research is the conventional Gazis-Herman-Rothery model (GHR model). Then, another GHR model is used to predict the deceleration intent of the 3rd vehicle, which is expected to occur 1.5 seconds later based on the estimates of headways and velocities. In addition, this study proposes an interface to inform the predicted intention to the following vehicle by using a windshield display (WSD). Numerical analyses showed that the UKF integrated with the GHR model succeeded in estimating the vehicle platooning states and predicting the deceleration intent accurately. However, the prediction does not always shows the perfect match with the actual observation due to the uncertainty of driver’s behavior. Although it is not completely accurate, it is a quite useful information to mitigate the collision risk so that we decided to design the interface by the WSD to inform the predicted deceleration intent to the following car driver. A driving simulator experiment was carried out to present the 3rd vehicle deceleration intent expected to occur 1.5 seconds later to the 4th ego car. It was found that the maximum deceleration rate of the 4th vehicle was suppressed and the value of the Time-To-Collision was increased not only in an ordinal deceleration case but also in a situation where the collision risk became significant. 1. 緒 言 平成 27年における交通事故の発生状況では,車両相互での追突事故が約 4割と最も多い(警察庁交通局,2016). 追突事故の発生要因の一つとして,先行車の挙動に対するドライバの認知・判断の遅れが挙げられる.この対策 として衝突被害軽減ブレーキに代表される車両制御で追突被害を軽減または回避するシステムがあり,一般的に 認知されている. このように追突リスク低減を目的とした,車両に対して直接的に操作介入を行うシステムが普及する一方,ド ライバに対し適切な操作を促す間接的な支援システムの研究も進められており,縦方向の追突リスク評価指標も 確立されつつある(伊藤他,2015).例えば,先々行車を含めた車群を安全性の観点から支援を行う予測運転評価 指標(PRE3:PREdiction by PRE PREceding vehicle)をドライバに呈示した結果,無駄な加減速が抑制され先行車 Model development and its evaluation of predicting preceding car’s deceleration intent based on state estimation of vehicle platoon Takaya ISHIKURA*1 and Hironori SUZUKI*2 *1 Graduate School of Nippon Institute of Technology 4-1 Gakuendai Miyasiro-mati, Minamisaitama-gun, Saitama 345-8501, Japan *2 Nippon Institute of Technology 4-1 Gakuendai Miyasiro-mati, Minamisaitama-gun, Saitama 345-8501, Japan 1 Received: 13 March 2017; Revised: 14 May 2017; Accepted: 7 June 2017