Chaos theory and social science: A methodological analysis

This article investigates the relevance of chaos theory for social science. The application of chaos models in the analysis of social phenomena is accompanied by some important scientific problems. First, whether observations of social phenomena are generated by nonlinear dynamics cannot be ascertained beyond considerable doubt, especially when these observations contain measurement errors; i.e., there is a problem of external validity. Secondly, and more important, as a theory of irregular cyclical social behaviour is lacking, inductivestatistical theory-formation about such behaviour, which is based on fitting a mathematical model of chaos to observations of social phenomena, is impossible unless additional information is used concerning the context and circumstances wherein the social phenomena occur; i.e., the internal validity of any theoretical explanation that is derived from only a fitted mathematical model (of chaos) cannot be assessed. So, research into the suggestion derived from mathematical chaos theory that irregular cycles may be present in the development of social phenomena over time requires theory-formation about irregular cyclical social behaviour on the basis of established theoretical insights and empirical evidence instead of fitting sophisticated mathematical models of chaos to observations of social phenomena. © Kluwer Academic Publishers. Reprinted by permission of Kluwer Academic Publishers. This article was first published in Quality & Quantity (1994) 28, 421-433. Address all communications to Jan Faber, Dept. of Science and Policy, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80083, 3508 TB Utrecht, The Netherlands. Henk Koppelar, Dept. of Mathematics and Informatics, Delft University of Technology. This article is based on the paper we presented at the International System Dynamics Conference 1992 (July 14-17, 1992 in Utrecht, The Netherlands). Acknowledgements go to Willem J. Scheper and Peter G. Swanborn for their comments on an earlier version of this article. Further information can be obtained from the first author. 70 Historical Social Research, Vol. 20 — 1995 — No. 1, 70-82