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Strains of antibiotic-resistant bacteria have become more and more prevalent. This has attracted the attention of health agencies worldwide, leading to an urgent search for mechanisms to put a stop to this phenomenon. This study focuses on estimating the probability of a person in Ecuador (at potential risk) contracting an infection due to ampicillin-resistant  Escherichia coli  through the consumption of contaminated water, for which a residence area of people was considered in urban or rural areas. The analysis was carried out using the Bayes Theorem and the results show that in the rural population the probability of contracting an infection of this kind is 8.41% whilst in the urban area the probability is 3.57%. These results show an urgent need to provide safe water sources to the population, as well as to instigate an environmental legislation reform that allows for controlling the release of emerging pollutants, including antibiotics.

Modelling risk using Bayes theorem of infection by antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli in rural and urban populations of Ecuador