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On April 24th, 2009, a new swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) was first reported in Mexico. Japan confirmed cases of the flu on May 9th, and the pandemic in Japan has become full-scale. The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan announced that the first peak of this pandemic was predicted to occur in October, 2009. Therefore, it is most important to predict the progress of this pandemic to be able to use medical resources effectively in Japan.

nippon eiseigaku zasshi/nihon eiseigaku zasshi

Predicting Spread of New Pandemic Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) in Local Mid-Size City: Evaluation of Hospital Bed Shortage and Effectiveness of Vaccination