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Although a number of studies have investigated the prognostic significance of exercise variables, they have focused only on short-term prognosis in relatively severe heart failure. This study was carried out to determine whether the indices obtained during cardiopulmonary exercise testing have prognostic significance during a 10-year follow-up in mild to moderate heart failure. Three hundred and sixty-four consecutive patients with cardiac disease performed 4 min of 20-W warm-up, followed by a symptom-limited incremental exercise test on a cycle ergometer. In addition to the measurements of peak oxygen uptake (VO2) and gas exchange (anaerobic) threshold, the time constant of VO2 kinetics during the onset of warm-up exercise was calculated using a single exponential equation. Data on mortality were available for follow-up in 260 patients. After 3,331+/-610 days of follow-up, 29 cardiovascular-related deaths occurred. The time constant of VO2 in the nonsurvivors was 76.7+/-43.3 s and was significantly prolonged compared with that of survivors (55.3+/-30.6 s, p=0.001). Peak VO2 and gas exchange threshold were both significantly lower in nonsurvivors than in survivors. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for 10 years of follow-up demonstrated a survival rate of 89.0% for patients with a normal VO2 time constant (&lt; 80 s) and 71.7% for those with a longer time constant (&gt; or = 80 s), showing a significant difference in survival (p=0.0028). Respiratory gas parameters obtained during exercise testing, particularly the time constant of VO2 kinetics, were found to be useful for predicting long-term prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure. These results suggest that cardiopulmonary exercise testing could be more applicable in ambulatory patients with minimal symptoms or minimal functional impairment.

Prognostic Significance of Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing for 10-Year Survival in Patients With Mild to Moderate Heart Failure