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The optimum cut-off value of premature atrial contraction (PAC) burden (CV-PACb) in 24-h Holter electrocardiography (24-h ECG) for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) is debatable, with few validation data.Methods and Results:We retrospectively analyzed 61 patients already diagnosed with AF (AD-AF) and 147 patients never diagnosed with AF (ND-AF), aged ≥50 years, free of heart disease, and who had undergone 24-h ECG and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that 0.4% was the optimal CV-PACb differentiating AD-AF from ND-AF, with 69% sensitivity and 72% specificity (area under the curve [AUC] 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.79); however, the left atrial volume index was not significant (AUC 0.60; 95% CI 0.51-0.68). To verify the CV-PACb, new propensity-matched cohorts (i.e., subjects with a PAC burden ≥0.4% and &lt;0.4%; n=69 in each group) were compared based on new detection of AF at a median follow-up of 50 months (interquartile range 12-60 months) Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that among 24-h ECG and TTE findings, only PAC burden ≥0.4% was independently associated with incident AF (hazard ratio 5.28; 95% CI 1.28-26.11; P=0.023).

circulation journal

Revisit to the Prognostic Value of Premature Atrial Contraction Burden in 24-h Holter Electrocardiography for Predicting Undiagnosed Atrial Fibrillation ― A Propensity Score-Matched Study ―