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PENENTUAN MODEL REGRESI TERBAIK DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE STEPWISE (STUDI KASUS : IMPOR BERAS DI SULAWESI UTARA) ABSTRAK Indonesia memiliki lahan pertanian yang cukup besar dan tentulah mampu memenuhi kebutuhan beras masyarakatnya, tetapi pada kenyataan produksi beras di Indonesia belum dapat memenuhi permintaan masyarakat sehingga pemerintah mengambil kebijakkan untuk mengadakan impor beras agar kebutuhan terpenuhi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi impor beras di Sulawesi Utara dan menentukan model regresi terbaiknnya. Penelitian dilakukan di Kota Manado, Sulawesi Utara dan berlangsung selama 5 bulan sejak November 2016 sampai April 2017. Data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder tahunan Badan Pusat Statistik yang diolah dari buku Sulawesi Utara dalam Angka 2008-2016. Data yang diperoleh dianalisi dengan Metode regresi Stepwise. Variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi impor beras di Sulawesi Utara yaitu penerimaan beras dari dalam negeri (X 4 ) dan devisa impor unpaid pada bea dan cukai Bitung (X 8 ) yang membentuk model regresi terbaik  Yduga = 26322,228- 0,626X 4  + 0.001X8, dengan nilai R-sqr = 93,7% dan R-adj = 91,8%. Variabel-variabel tersebut cukup baik untuk menduga besar jumlah impor beras di Sulawesi Utara. Kata Kunci:  Metode Stepwise, koefisien determinasi, beras, Sulawesi Utara. DETERMINING THE BEST REGRESSION MODEL USING STEPWISE METHOD (CASE STUDY: RICE IMPORTS IN NORTH SULAWESI) ABSTRACT Indonesia has a large agricultural land and certainly able to supply for people, but in reality the rice production in Indonesia has not been able to complete the demands of the people, so the government took the policy to import rice. The purpose of this research is to determine the variables that affecting rice imports in North Sulawesi and determine the best regression model. The research was held in Manado City, North Sulawesi and lasted for five months from November 2016 to April 2017. The data used is secondary data of Statistics Indonesia and processed from book North Sulawesi in Figures 2008-2016. The data were analyzed by Stepwise Regression Method. The variables that influence rice import in North Sulawesi are the receipt of domestic rice (X4) and unpaid import devisa at excise Bitung customs and excise office (X8) which make the best regression model Ypredict = 26322,228- 0,626X 4  + 0.001X 8,  with R-sqr = 93,7% and R-adj = 91,8%. These variables are good to estimate the number of rice imports in North Sulawesi. Keywords:  Stepwise method, coefficient of determination, rice, North Sulawesi