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This NRC report provides an informative account for researchers who are interested in the interaction between statistics and oceanography. The committee should be complimented for accomplishing such a difficult mission. While the report offers a wide spectrum of interesting activities in these two fields, this discussion is limited to a specific omponent, namely, the data smoothing aspect of oceanographic data. A main purpose of this note is to illustrate how time series techniques that are developed mostly for econometric problems may find applications in physical oceanography. Specifically, the wind-driven umerical model of the equatorial sea level of the South Pacific given in Miller and Cane (1989) is considered. In Miller and Cane (1989), a Kalman filter approach is used to estimate and to forecast he sea level based on a linear wind-driven umerical model. This model is useful since it provides not only a systematic treatment of missing observations (temporal gaps), but also allows extrapolation to points where direct measurements are difficult (spatial gaps). In this discussion, the so-called unit root and trend break asymptotics are employed to analyze the data given in Miller and Cane (1989). These techniques have been developed mainly by economists and statisticians to handle nonstationary data; see, for example, Nelson and Plosser (1982), Chan and Wei (1987), Phillips (1987) and Perron (1989), among others. A fundamental idea in this approach lies in incorporating the knowledge of an external event into the analysis of the underlying nonstationary pattern of the data. In this context, one may consider the El Niiio phenomenon as an intervention to the sea level. The series can then be divided into two parts. The first part consists of the data obtained prior to the El Ninio effect while the second part consists of the post-El Niiio data. Although a random walk model is first found to be adequate, further trend break analysis reveals that the unit root

[Report on Statistics and Physical Oceanography]: Comment: Unit Root and Structural Changes in Tropical Sea Levels