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Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of ambient ozone levelsand temperatures which, in turn, may impact public health. Much research hasfocused on the effect of short-term ozone exposures on mortality and morbiditywhile controlling for temperature as a confounder, but less is known about thejoint effects of ozone and temperature. The extent of the health effects ofchanging ozone levels and temperatures will depend on whether these effects areadditive or synergistic. In this paper we propose a spatial, semi-parametricmodel to estimate the joint ozone-temperature risk surfaces in 95 US urbanareas. Our methodology restricts the ozone-temperature risk surfaces to bemonotone in ozone and allows for both nonadditive and nonlinear effects ofozone and temperature. We use data from the National Mortality and MorbidityAir Pollution Study (NMMAPS) and show that the proposed model fits the databetter than additive linear and nonlinear models. We then examine thesynergistic effect of ozone and temperature both nationally and locally andfind evidence of a nonlinear ozone effect and an ozone-temperature interactionat higher temperatures and ozone concentrations.

Modeling the effect of temperature on ozone-related mortality