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This study analyzes diverse hypotheses of electronic fraud in the RecallReferendum celebrated in Venezuela on August 15, 2004. We define fraud as thedifference between the elector's intent, and the official vote tally. Our nullhypothesis is that there was no fraud, and we attempt to search for evidencethat will allow us to reject this hypothesis. We find no evidence that fraudwas committed by applying numerical maximums to machines in some precincts.Equally, we discard any hypothesis that implies altering some machines and notothers, at each electoral precinct, because the variation patterns betweenmachines at each precinct are normal. However, the statistical evidence iscompatible with the occurrence of fraud that has affected every machine in asingle precinct, but differentially more in some precincts than others. We findthat the deviation pattern between precincts, based on the relationship betweenthe signatures collected to request the referendum in November 2003 (theso-called, Reafirmazo), and the YES votes on August 15, is positive andsignificantly correlated with the deviation pattern in the relationship betweenexit polls and votes in those same precincts. In other words, those precinctsin which, according to the number of signatures, there are an unusually lownumber of YES votes (i.e., votes to impeach the president), is also where,according to the exit polls, the same thing occurs.

In Search of the Black Swan: Analysis of the Statistical Evidence of Electoral Fraud in Venezuela