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We present a simulation-based study in which the results of two major exitpolls conducted during the recall referendum that took place in Venezuela onAugust 15, 2004, are compared to the official results of the VenezuelanNational Electoral Council "Consejo Nacional Electoral" (CNE). The two exitpolls considered here were conducted independently by S\'{u}mate, anongovernmental organization, and Primero Justicia, a political party. We findsignificant discrepancies between the exit poll data and the official CNEresults in about 60% of the voting centers that were sampled in these polls. Weshow that discrepancies between exit polls and official results are not due toa biased selection of the voting centers or to problems related to the size ofthe samples taken at each center. We found discrepancies in all the stateswhere the polls were conducted. We do not have enough information on the exitpoll data to determine whether the observed discrepancies are the consequenceof systematic biases in the selection of the people interviewed by thepollsters around the country. Neither do we have information to study thepossibility of a high number of false or nonrespondents. We have limited datasuggesting that the discrepancies are not due to a drastic change in the votingpatterns that occurred after the exit polls were conducted. We notice that thetwo exit polls were done independently and had few centers in common, yet theiroverall results were very similar.

The 2004 Venezuelan Presidential Recall Referendum: Discrepancies Between Two Exit Polls and Official Results