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Existing state-wide data bases on prosecutors' decisions about juvenileoffenders are important, yet often un-explored resources for understandingchanges in patterns of judicial decisions over time. We investigate the extentand nature of change in judicial behavior toward juveniles following theenactment of a new set of mandatory registration policies between 1992 and 1996via analyzing the data on prosecutors' decisions of moving forward for youthsrepeatedly charged with sexual violence in South Carolina. To analyze thislongitudinal binary data, we use a random effects logistic regression model viaincorporating an unknown change-point year. For convenient physicalinterpretation, our models allow the proportional odds interpretation ofeffects of the explanatory variables and the change-point year with and withoutconditioning on the youth-specific random effects. As a consequence, theeffects of the unknown change-point year and other factors can be interpretedas changes in both within youth and population averaged odds of moving forward.Using a Bayesian paradigm, we consider various prior opinions about the unknownyear of the change in the pattern of prosecutors' decision. Based on theavailable data, we make posteriori conclusions about whether a change-point hasoccurred between 1992 and 1996 (inclusive), evaluate the degree of confidenceabout the year of change-point, estimate the magnitude of the effects of thechange-point and other factors, and investigate other provocative questionsabout patterns of prosecutors' decisions over time.

Changing approaches of prosecutors towards juvenile repeated sex-offenders: A Bayesian evaluation