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. This article shows by various examples how consumers,of statisti- cal information may be confused when this information is presented in terms of conditional probabilities. It also shows how this confusion helps others to lie with statistics, and it suggests both confusion and lies can be exposed by using alternative modes of conveying statistical information. Key words and phrases: Conditional probabilities, natural frequencies, heuristical reasoning.

How to Confuse with Statistics or: The Use and Misuse of Conditional Probabilities