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Based on the SEIR model and the modeling of urban transportation networks, ageneral-purpose simulator for the spread of epidemics in Chinese cities isbuilt. The Chinese public transportation system between over 340prefectural-level cities is modeled as a multi-layer bi-partite network, withlayers representing different means of transportation (airlines, railways, sailroutes and buses), and nodes divided into two categories (central cities,peripheral cities). At each city, an open-system SEIR model tracks the localspread of the disease, with population in- and out-flow exchanging with theoverlying transportation network. The model accounts for (1) differenttransmissivities of the epidemic on different transportation media, (2) thetransit of inbound flow at cities, (3) cross-infection on public transportationvehicles due to path overlap, and the realistic considerations that (4) theinfected population are not entering public transportation and (5) therecovered population are not subject to repeated infections. The model could beused to simulate the city-level spread in China (and potentially othercountries) of an arbitrary epidemic, characterized by its basic reproductionnumber, incubation period, infection period and zoonotic force, originated fromany Chinese prefectural-level city(s), during the period before effectivegovernment interventions are implemented. Flowmaps are input into the system totrigger inter-city dynamics, assuming different flow strength, determined fromempirical observation, within/between the bi-partite divisions of nodes. Themodel is used to simulate the 2019 Coronavirus epidemic in Wuhan; it shows thatthe framework is robust and reliable, and simulated results match publiccity-level datasets to an extraordinary extent.

Simulating the Spread of Epidemics in China on the Multi-layer Transportation Network: Beyond the Coronavirus in Wuhan