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Nonpoint source pollution (NPS) from contaminated sediments, urban runoff, storm sewers, and agriculture impairs Great Lakes shoreline waters; accurate NPS accounting is essential to effective water quality and ecosystem management. We are developing a physically based, spatially-distributed hydrology model to simulate spatial and temporal NPS distributions in the Saginaw Bay watersheds. Multiple databases of meteorology, land use, satellite imagery, topography, hydrography, soils, and agricultural statistics are used to estimate nonpoint source loading potential in the study watershed. Soil erosion and sediment yield by both wind and water are estimated based on the universal soil loss equation and vegetation indices derived from the satellite imagery. Animal manure production is computed from tabulations of animals by zip code area. Relative chemical loadings for agricultural land use are calculated from county fertilizer and pesticide estimates by crop. These estimates will be used as the input to the water quality model for simulating pollutant transport through surface and subsurface processes to the Great Lakes waters. After verification with Saginaw Bay water quality data, these simulations will help researchers better understand the dynamics of Great Lakes aquatic systems and enable agencies to target critical areas for management.

Estimating Nonpoint Source Pollution Loadings In The Great Lakes Watersheds