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Despite a robust clinical trial enterprise and encouraging phase II results, the vast minority of oncologic drugs in development receive regulatory approval. In addition, clinicians occasionally make therapeutic decisions based on phase II data. Therefore, clinicians, investigators, and regulatory agencies require improved understanding of the implications of positive phase II studies. We hypothesized that prior probability of eventual drug approval was significantly different across GI cancers, with substantial ramifications for the predictive value of phase II studies.

Rational Clinical Experiment: Assessing Prior Probability and Its Impact on the Success of Phase II Clinical Trials