English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Multiple recurrent outbreak cycles have been commonly obse rved in infectious diseases such as measles and chicken pox. This complex outbr eak dynamics in epidemiologicals is rarely captured by deterministic models. In thi s paper, we investigate a simple 2-dimensional SI epidemiological model and propose that th e coexistence of multiple attractors attributes to the complex outbreak patterns. We fir st determine the conditions on parameters for the existence of an isolated center, then pro perly perturb the model to generate Hopf bifurcation and obtain limit cycles around the ce nter. We further analytically prove that the maximum number of the coexisting limit cycles is three, and provide a corresponding set of parameters for the existence of the three l imit cycles. Simulation results demonstrate the case with the maximum coexisting attractor s, which contains one stable disease free equilibrium and two stable endemic periodic so lutions separated by one unstable periodic solution. Therefore, different disease ou tc mes can be predicted by a single nonlinear deterministic model based on different initial d ta.

MULTIPLE RECURRENT OUTBREAK CYCLES IN AN AUTONOMOUS EPIDEMIOLOGICAL MODEL DUE TO MULTIPLE LIMIT CYCLE BIFURCATION