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A b s tra c t A im in g a t th e to u r is m dem and fo re ca s tin g p rob lem s in H a in a n P ro v in c e, th is paper proposed a n o ve l dyn am ic o p tim a l in p u t sub se t fu zzy g re y -M a rk o v p re d ic tio n m o de l based o n tra d it io n a l g re y -M a rk o v m o de l. T h is m o de l f i r s t ly de te rm ines th e o p tim a l n u m b e r o f in p u t subsets th ro u g h in p u t sub se t m e th o d acco rd in g to th e m ean ab so lu te percentage e r ro r o f th e p re d ic t io n o f G M (1,1) m o d e l,th e n ca lcu la tes th e m e m b e rsh ip v e c to r and takes i t as w e ig h t v e c to r o f M a rk o v tra n s fe r m a tr ix v e c to r so th a t th e fo re ca s t va lue can be rev ised th ro u g h fu zzy se t th e o ry. A n equal d im e n s io n in ­ creasing d yn am ic g re y p re d ic tio n m o d e l w as crea ted based o n th e c h a ra c te ris tic o f th e passage o f t im e , w h ic h enables us to p re d ic t th e to u r is m dem and. T h e n u m b e r o f to u r is ts rece ived b y ho te ls in H a in a n P ro v in ce is ta ke n as an exa m p le to s h o w th a t th e m o de l can e ffe c t iv e ly im p ro v e th e accuracy o f fo re ca s tin g da ta. K eyw ords F o re c a s t, G re y m o d e l F u zzy s e t, H a in a n p ro v in ce

基于改进的灰色模型的旅游需求预测研究 (Study on Tourism Demand Forecasting Based on Improved Grey Model).