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On launch, one of Swarm’s absolute scalar magnetometers (ASMs) failed to function, leaving an asymmetrical arrangement of redundant spares on different spacecrafts. A decision was required concerning the deployment of individual satellites into the low-orbit pair or the higher “lonely” orbit. I analyse the probabilities for successful operation of two of the science components of the Swarm mission in terms of a classical probabilistic failure analysis, with a view to concluding a favourable assignment for the satellite with the single working ASM. I concentrate on the following two science aspects: the east-west gradiometer aspect of the lower pair of satellites and the constellation aspect, which requires a working ASM in each of the two orbital planes. I use the so-called “expert solicitation” probabilities for instrument failure solicited from Mission Advisory Group (MAG) members. My conclusion from the analysis is that it is better to have redundancy of ASMs in the lonely satellite orbit. Although the opposite scenario, having redundancy (and thus four ASMs) in the lower orbit, increases the chance of a working gradiometer late in the mission; it does so at the expense of a likely constellation. Although the results are presented based on actual MAG members’ probabilities, the results are rather generic, excepting the case when the probability of individual ASM failure is very small; in this case, any arrangement will ensure a successful mission since there is essentially no failure expected at all. Since the very design of the lower pair is to enable common mode rejection of external signals, it is likely that its work can be successfully achieved during the first 5 years of the mission.

A probabilistic analysis of the implicationsof instrument failures on ESA’s Swarm mission for its individual satellite orbit deployments