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In the context of the 12th release of the international geomagnetic reference field (IGRF), we present the methodology we followed to design a candidate secular variation model for years 2015–2020. An initial geomagnetic field model centered around 2014.3 is first constructed, based on Swarm magnetic measurements, for both the main field and its instantaneous secular variation. This initial model is next fed to an inverse geodynamo modelling framework in order to specify, for epoch 2014.3, the initial condition for the integration of a three-dimensional numerical dynamo model. The initialization phase combines the information contained in the initial model with that coming from the numerical dynamo model, in the form of three-dimensional multivariate statistics built from a numerical dynamo run unconstrained by data.

A candidate secular variation model for IGRF-12 based on Swarm data and inverse geodynamo modelling