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The development of real-time tsunami forecast and rapid tsunami warning systems is crucial in order to mitigate tsunami disasters. The present study shows that tsunami prediction from a seismic centroid moment tensor (CMT) solution would work satisfactorily for the 2013 Santa Cruz Islands earthquake (Mw 8.0) tsunami even though the earthquake source had been modeled as a complicated source characterized by two patches of slip in a past study. We numerically solved the equations for a linear dispersive wave on a spherical coordinate system from the initial tsunami height distribution derived from the CMT solution and a classical scaling law for earthquake faults. The tsunami simulations well explain the observed tsunami arrival times, polarities of initial wave, and maximum amplitudes obtained by deep-ocean pressure measurements. The comparison of the simulation results from dispersive and non-dispersive modeling indicates that the dispersive modeling reproduced the observed waveforms better than the conventional non-dispersive approach. Also, the area affected by a maximum height greater than 0.4 m is decreased by approximately 34% by using dispersion modeling. Those results indicate that the tsunami prediction based on CMT solutions is useful for early warning, and the modeling of dispersion can significantly improve performance.

Tsunami modeling from the seismic CMT solution considering the dispersive effect: a case of the 2013 Santa Cruz Islands tsunami