English (United Kingdom)

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/featured_content/oa?rat=en

https://curated-unify.zendy.io/wp-json/zendy-region/v1/highlighted_journal/

Global: Zendy Plus annual

Presents the access of premium content as premium feature

Premium Content

Presents the keyphrase highlighting as premium feature

Keyphrase Highlighting

Presents the summarisation as premium feature

Summarisation

Insights

Presents the pdf analysis as premium feature

PDF Analysis

Presents the zaia usage as premium feature

ZAIA

Global: Zendy Tools annual

Global: Zendy Free Plan

Global: Zendy Tools monthly

Global: Zendy Plus monthly

Background  Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is on the rise in China. This study used a dynamic Markov model to predict the longitudinal trends of MDR-TB in China by 2050 and to assess the effects of alternative control measures.    Methods  Eight states of tuberculosis transmission were set up in the Markov model using a hypothetical cohort of 100 000 people. The prevalence of MDR-TB and bacteriologically confirmed drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB + ) were simulated and MDR-TB was stratified into whether the disease was treated with the recommended regimen or not.    Results  Without any intervention changes to current conditions, the prevalence of DS-TB +  was projected to decline 67.7% by 2050, decreasing to 20 per 100 000 people, whereas that of MDR-TB was expected to triple to 58/100 000. Furthermore, 86.2% of the MDR-TB cases would be left untreated by the year of 2050. In the case where MDR-TB detection rate reaches 50% or 70% at 5% per year, the decline in prevalence of MDR-TB would be 25.9 and 36.2% respectively. In the case where treatment coverage was improved to 70% or 100% at 5% per year, MDR-TB prevalence in 2050 would decrease by 13.8 and 24.1%, respectively. If both detection rate and treatment coverage reach 70%, the prevalence of MDR-TB by 2050 would be reduced to 28/100 000 by a 51.7% reduction.    Conclusions  MDR-TB, especially untreated MDR-TB, would rise rapidly under China’s current MDR-TB control strategies. Interventions designed to promote effective detection and treatment of MDR-TB are imperative in the fights against MDR-TB epidemics.

Rising challenge of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in China: a predictive study using Markov modeling