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This paper developed an estimation model for the contribution of exports to a country’s regional economy based on the Chenery–Moses model and conducted an empirical analysis using China’s multi-regional input–output tables for 1997, 2002, and 2007. The results indicated that China’s national exports make significantly different contributions to the provincial economy in various regions, with the greatest contribution being observed in the eastern region and the smallest in the central region. The provinces are also subjected to significantly different export spillover effects. The boosting effect for the eastern provinces is primarily generated from local exports, whereas the western provinces primarily benefit from the export spillover effect from the eastern provinces. The eastern provinces, such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, are the primary sources of export spillover effects, and Guangdong is the largest source of export spillover effects for almost all of the provinces in China.

Estimation of the contribution of exports to the provincial economy: an analysis based on China’s multi-regional input–output tables