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Dynamic workloads in cloud computing can be managed through live migration of virtual machines from overloaded or underloaded hosts to other hosts to save energy and/or mitigate performance-related Service Level Agreement (SLA) violations. The challenging issue is how to detect when a host is overloaded to initiate live migration actions in time. In this paper, a new approach to make long-term predictions of resource demands of virtual machines for host overload detection is presented. To take into account the uncertainty of long-term predictions, a probability distribution model of the prediction error is built. Based on the probability distribution of the prediction error, a decision-theoretic approach is proposed to make live migration decision that take into account live migration overheads. Experimental results using the CloudSim simulator and PlanetLab workloads show that the proposed approach achieves better performance and higher stability compared to other approaches that do not take into account the uncertainty of long-term predictions and the live migration overhead.

Tackling uncertainty in long-term predictions for host overload and underload detection in cloud computing