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Background  Overall, 40% of patients with a locally advanced head and neck cancer (LAHNC) treated by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) present local recurrence within 2 years after the treatment. The aims of this study were to characterize voxel-wise the sub-regions where tumor recurrence appear and to predict their location from pre-treatment  18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) images.    Materials and methods  Twenty-six patients with local failure after treatment were included in this study. Local recurrence volume was identified by co-registering pre-treatment and recurrent PET/CT images using a customized rigid registration algorithm. A large set of voxel-wise features were extracted from pre-treatment PET to train a random forest model allowing to predict local recurrence at the voxel level.    Results  Out of 26 expert-assessed registrations, 15 provided enough accuracy to identify recurrence volumes and were included for further analysis. Recurrence volume represented on average 23% of the initial tumor volume. The MTV with a threshold of 50% of SUVmax plus a 3D margin of 10 mm covered on average 89.8% of the recurrence and 96.9% of the initial tumor. SUV and MTV alone were not sufficient to identify the area of recurrence. Using a random forest model, 15 parameters, combining radiomics and spatial location, were identified, allowing to predict the recurrence sub-regions with a median area under the receiver operating curve of 0.71 (range 0.14–0.91).    Conclusion  As opposed to regional comparisons which do not bring enough evidence for accurate prediction of recurrence volume, a voxel-wise analysis of FDG-uptake features suggested a potential to predict recurrence with enough accuracy to consider tailoring CRT by dose escalation within likely radioresistant regions.

Voxel-based identification of local recurrence sub-regions from pre-treatment PET/CT for locally advanced head and neck cancers