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Background  Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of  Ctenocephalides felis , the most common flea found on companion animals. It is essential that we understand the effects of climate on  C. felis  distribution as fleas are a major veterinary and public health concern. This study investigated the current distribution of  C. felis  in Australia and future projections based on climate modelling.    Results  Typing of  C. felis  was undertaken using the cytochrome  c  oxidase subunit 1 ( cox 1) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) region and current distribution of haplotypes was mapped by Maximum Entropy (Maxent) niche modelling. All  C. felis  haplotypes have been predicted to persist in environments along the eastern and southern coastlines of Australia and distinct ecological niches were observed for two  C. felis  haplogroups. Clade ‘Cairns’ haplogroup thrives under the northern coastal tropical conditions whilst Clade ‘Sydney’ haplogroup persists in temperate climates along the eastern and southern coasts. The model was then used to predict areas that are projected to have suitable climatic conditions for these haplogroups in 2050 and 2070 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. Under all IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, the geographical range of all haplotypes was reduced by 5.59–42.21% in 2050 and 27.08–58.82% by 2070. The ranges of all clades were predicted to shift south along the eastern coastline.    Conclusions  As future temperatures exceed critical threshold temperatures for  C. felis  development in the northern tropical areas, Clade ‘Cairns’ haplogroup is predicted to shift south along the coastline and possibly outcompete the temperate haplogroup in these areas. If  C. felis  haplogroups possess distinct climatic niches it suggests a potential for these to be biologically distinct and have differing developmental rates and vector capabilities.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-019-3399-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate change models predict southerly shift of the cat flea (Ctenocephalides felis) distribution in Australia