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Background   Aedes aegypti  is an efficient primary vector of dengue, and has a heterogeneous distribution in Singapore.  Aedes albopictus , a poor vector of dengue, is native and ubiquitous on the island. Though dengue risk follows the dispersal of  Ae. aegypti , the spatial distribution of the vector is often poorly characterized. Here, based on the ubiquitous presence of  Ae. albopictus , we developed a novel entomological index,  Ae. aegypti  Breeding Percentage (BP), to demonstrate the expansion of  Ae. aegypti  into new territories that redefined the dengue burden map in Singapore. We also determined the thresholds of BP that render the specific area higher risk of dengue transmission.    Methods  We performed analysis of dengue fever incidence and  Aedes  mosquito breeding in Singapore by utilizing island-wide dengue cases and vector surveillance data from 2003 to 2013. The percentage of  Ae. aegypti  breeding among the total  Aedes  breeding habitats (BP), and the reported number of dengue fever cases in each year were calculated for each residential grid.    Results  The BP of grids, for every year over the 11-year study period, had a consistent positive correlation with the annual case counts. Our findings suggest that the geographical expansion of  Ae. aegypti  to previously “non-dengue” areas have contributed substantially to the recent dengue fever incidence in Singapore. Our analysis further indicated that non-endemic areas in Singapore are likely to be at risk of dengue fever outbreaks beyond an  Ae. aegypti  BP of 20%.    Conclusions  Our analyses indicate areas with increasing  Ae. aegypti  BP are likely to become more vulnerable to dengue outbreaks. We propose the usage of  Ae. aegypti  BP as a factor for spatial risk stratification of dengue fever in endemic countries. The  Ae. aegypti  BP could be recommended as an indicator for decision making in vector control efforts, and also be used to monitor the geographical expansion of  Ae. aegypti .    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-018-3281-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

parasites and vectors

A novel entomological index, Aedes aegypti Breeding Percentage, reveals the geographical spread of the dengue vector in Singapore and serves as a spatial risk indicator for dengue