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Background    Culex pipiens  is the major vector of West Nile virus in Europe, and is causing frequent outbreaks throughout the southern part of the continent. Proper empirical modelling of the population dynamics of this species can help in understanding West Nile virus epidemiology, optimizing vector surveillance and mosquito control efforts. But modelling results may differ from place to place. In this study we look at which type of models and weather variables can be consistently used across different locations.    Methods  Weekly mosquito trap collections from eight functional units located in France, Greece, Italy and Serbia for several years were combined. Additionally, rainfall, relative humidity and temperature were recorded. Correlations between lagged weather conditions and  Cx. pipiens  dynamics were analysed. Also seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models were fitted to describe the temporal dynamics of  Cx. pipiens  and to check whether the weather variables could improve these models.    Results  Correlations were strongest between mean temperatures at short time lags, followed by relative humidity, most likely due to collinearity. Precipitation alone had weak correlations and inconsistent patterns across sites. SARIMA models could also make reasonable predictions, especially when longer time series of  Cx. pipiens  observations are available.    Conclusions  Average temperature was a consistently good predictor across sites. When only short time series (~ < 4 years) of observations are available, average temperature can therefore be used to model  Cx. pipiens  dynamics. When longer time series (~ > 4 years) are available, SARIMAs can provide better statistical descriptions of  Cx. pipiens  dynamics, without the need for further weather variables. This suggests that density dependence is also an important determinant of  Cx. pipiens  dynamics.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-017-2484-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Ecology of West Nile virus across four European countries: empirical modelling of the Culex pipiens abundance dynamics as a function of weather