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Background  The Asian tiger mosquito,  Aedes albopictus , is a highly invasive mosquito species of public health importance. In the wake of its arrival in neighbouring Italy the authorities of the canton of Ticino in southern Switzerland initiated a surveillance programme in 2000 that is still on-going. Here we explored the unique data set, compiled from 2003 to 2014, to analyse the local dynamic of introduction and establishment of  Ae. albopictus , its relative density in relation to precipitation and temperature, and its potential distribution at the passage from southern to northern Europe.    Methods  The presence of  Ae. albopictus  was recorded by ovitraps placed across Ticino. In addition to presence-absence, the relationship between relative egg densities and year, month, temperature and precipitation was analysed by a generalised linear mixed model.    Results  Since its first detection in 2003 at Ticino’s border with Italy  Ae. albopictus  has continuously spread north across the lower valleys, mainly along the trans-European motorway, E35. Detailed local analysis showed that industrial areas were colonised by the mosquito before residential areas and that, afterwards, the mosquito was more present in residential than in industrial areas.  Ae. albopictus  appeared sporadically and then became more present in the same places the following years, suggesting gradual establishment of locally reproducing populations that manage to overwinter.  This trend continues as witnessed by both a growing area being infested and increasing egg counts in the ovitraps. There was a clear South-North gradient with more traps being repeatedly positive in the South and fewer eggs laid during periods of intensive precipitation. In the North, the mosquito appeared repeatedly through the years, but never managed to establish, probably because of unfavourable weather conditions and low road traffic.    Conclusions  Given the present results we assume that additional areas may still become infested. While the current study provides good estimates of relative egg densities and shows the local and regional dynamics of  Ae. albopictus  invasion, additional parameters ought to be measured to make an objective risk assessment for epidemic disease transmission. The likelihood of  Ae. albopictus  to further spread and increase in densities calls for continued surveillance.    Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1577-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Spread and establishment of Aedes albopictus in southern Switzerland between 2003 and 2014: an analysis of oviposition data and weather conditions